Overview
Whilst TVB never has been, and never will be, just a
tipping service, the tips do provide a good indicator of how a season has gone –
and the suggestion from their results, is that this season was a bit of struggle
!
Across the 5 months of the main season (Nov
1st – Mar 31st) a total of 161 tips were issued with
44.125pts staked.
If
you had managed to secure the best price in the tips email, then you would have
achieved a modest profit of 2.6pts (6% ROI).
I
only quote prices from the main bookmakers – and I issue at times when they
should be prepared to take a bet – but despite that, I doubt everyone will have
been able to achieve that figure.
That
said, in addition to the tips in the main season, the pre-season was profitable,
as has been the post season (Aintree !).
The
ante-post selections in the forum also generated a profit – as did (maybe most
importantly) the Top Picks.
Only
5 of them were issued during the season – but 4 won, yielding a profit of 5.7pts
at SP (8pts at early prices) to a level stake.
Between them, I would hope that the various components
ensured that anyone who did follow the tips, made some kind of
profit.
Ofcourse, that profit is unlikely to have been anywhere
near as big as in the 4 previous seasons – which begs the question, what went
wrong…?!
Tipping issues
I’ve
spent quite a long time analysing the tips and have come to the conclusion that
there are 2 simple reasons, why things didn’t go as well as normal, this
season.
Firstly, luck.
I
know this could sound like an excuse (!) – but it’s not, it’s just a statement
of fact.
161
tips, is not very many – particularly when the average price tends to be double
figures.
Simply, you are bound to get variation in luck across
such a relatively small sample – and when each winning tip accounts for around
3pts, that can make a big difference.
The
method I use to assess how ‘lucky’ the tips have been, is to check how many
touched 2.1 in running on Betfair.
When
a horse reached 2 on BF, the in running players have decided that it is as
likely to win, as it is to lose.
These guys are very good judges - they have to be – so
its fair to assume that half of the horses that trade at 2 in running, should go
on to win.
In
fact, more than half should win, as they need a percentage in order to make a
profit from what they do – which is why I choose 2.1 as the true ‘50:50’
point…
Across the season, 37 tips traded at 2.1 or less (34 at 2
or less) – but only 15 of them went on to win…
The
suggestion is that the tips were 3 or 4 winners short of what you would expect
with average ‘luck’.
That
resonates with me.
You
will always have some near misses – but Lil Rockerfeller, Flintham and Tea for
Two not placing, were 3 in particular, which could/should have gone the other
way.
If
those 3 had delivered, then there would have been an additional 8pts on the
P&L and the season would have felt very different.
The
second issue has been the mid week racing…
Looking back through the end of season reports for the
past couple of seasons, this is something which has been building.
I
was very aware of it – and even took the step of splitting the service into 2
parts this season – via the Big race tips and Daily tips.
With
hindsight, what I should have done, is jettison the Daily tips
completely.
It’s
impossible to define Big race tips precisely – but generally, they are tips in
class 1 or class 2 races.
There is the odd class 3 race which could be considered a
‘Big race’ – if it were run at a major meeting on a Saturday, for example:
whilst there is the odd class 2 race which wouldn’t be considered a Big race –
generally those run mid week, at the smaller tracks.
Looking at the performance of the ‘Big race’ tips against
the ‘Daily tips’ reveals a significant difference.
During the season, 113 tips were issued in big races
(Class 1 and 2), with 29.88pts staked.
They
made a profit, at best advised price, of 6.5pts (ROI of 22%).
They
even made a small profit at BSP.
These numbers are far more in line with the numbers for
the total service in previous seasons (particularly if you allow for the lack of
‘luck’).
By
contrast, there were 48 Daily tips issued during the season, with 14.25pts
staked.
But
they made a 3.9pt loss, at best prices
Across the entire season, there were only 3 winning Daily
tips: Court Frontier; Casse Tete and Westerner Point.
Furthermore, Casse Tete was a border line ‘Big race’ tip
(he ran in a class 3 handicap at the main meeting on a Saturday); whilst I had
to guess that Westerner Point was running in the equivalent of a class 3 race,
in Ireland.
In
short, the only definite winning Daily tip of the season, was Court Frontier –
and if I’d not got in before the price crash, I wouldn’t have tipped him
!
And
therein lies the problem with the Daily tips.
The
prices of the vast majority of the potential Daily tips go, before they can
actually be tipped…
The
bookmakers have been very clever by issuing prices early the evening
before.
That
tempts in people who can see ricks in the early prices – but anyone who bets
with them at that point, risks losing their account.
It’s
an impossible situation: the over-priced horses will be backed – and their
prices will shorten. Therefore, by the morning, when the bookmakers are prepared
to take some bets, their prices will be much more accurate – and then they will
put a 20% margin on top !
Simply, the chances on finding a ‘value’ selection in a
mid week race, based on information available in the public domain – and being
able to back it in the morning, are very small indeed…
The
other issue with the mid week races, is that often, conventional form study
won’t reveal the most likely winner.
In
such races, connections will frequently decide whether today is the day that
they will look to exploit a favourable handicap mark – but unless you are privy
to that intent, then you can only guess (or look for signs in the late betting
market).
In
summary, the odds are just too heavily stacked against your average bettor, for
them to be able to operate profitably in small races, betting early in the
morning.
If
you are able to bet on first shows – or close to the off – then it is possible,
but neither of those are realistic options, when you are tipping…
Tips Analysis
With
such a big difference between the performance of the 2 groups (Big race tips and
Daily tips), it’s difficult to draw many general conclusions.
However, I’m also disinclined to analyse the results of
the groups separately, as that doesn’t seem appropriate (as they were all TVB
tips).
The
one thing it is worth high lighting however, is the performance of well backed
tips (as this is something which I’ve pointed out in the past).
This
season, 6 horses halved in price, from the advised price to BSP – and whilst
only one of them won, that doesn’t tell the full story.
The
winner was Court Frontier – who was also the biggest steamer of the entire
season !
However, of the other 5: Morello Royal fell: Audacious
Plan ran well to finish third: Flintham was nailed in the shadow of the post:
and Ganbei won on his next outing.
McKenzies Friend was the final one of the half dozen – and he’s not yet run again, so is probably
worth looking out for !
Neither As de Mee nor Fayonagh quite managed to half in
price, prior to winning – but they weren’t far off, suggesting once again, that
well backed tips, are worth following, even at the BSP.
Conversely, of the 62 tips that had a bigger BSP than
advised price – only 3 won.
I’ve
no idea why Baie des Iles drifted: whilst Casse Tete and Rock the World were the
other 2.
In
fairness, Lil Rockerfeller also drifted and if he had won, the numbers
would have looked very different.
That
said, to an extent, the Cheltenham festival has its own betting rules, so he and
Rock the World, should possibly be excluded from analysis.
TVB Forum
The
TVB forum was introduced last season – and its usage has evolved significantly
this season.
That
has been mainly due to the system generated ‘tips’, which a handful of the guys
have posted on there.
Neil
and Matt were involved initially – but latterly it has been Chris and Francis
who have driven things forward…
In
addition to the system bets, the forum also continued to be used for the
occasional betting related matter. Also, Steve very kindly took to posting the
Pricewise selections and grids, most Friday evenings (which helps when the
prices on those race revert in the morning). Donnie periodically posted his
stable views – and ofcourse, Dave ran another successful Naps
competition.
I
used to it store ante-post selections and thoughts – and also for the weekly eye
catchers…
In
truth, I’m not sure how useful the eye catchers have been (I’ve not received any
feedback on them).
However, over the course of the season, there were 27
individual horses, who were identified as eye catchers and who recorded a win in
their next 3 races.
Backing all of the eye catchers blindly, would have
resulted in a significant loss – but that is to be expected, as many
subsequently ran in unsuitable races.
Just
focusing on those running in appropriate races, would have seen much better
results.
That would be particularly true, if you were able to back them early – as invariably the eye catchers were well backed in the early markets (linking back to horses being backed early in mid week markets).
That would be particularly true, if you were able to back them early – as invariably the eye catchers were well backed in the early markets (linking back to horses being backed early in mid week markets).
Conclusions and next season
In a
lot of respects, I think the 2016-17 season can be viewed positively.
The
processes and procedures that I use, worked well: with the write-up driving
things on a daily basis – ably backed up by the forum.
There were non of the prices crashes, experienced in
previous seasons – and generally, I would hope that people were able to get on
the tips (assuming they had appropriate accounts).
However, the Daily tips were a big cloud.
Issuing them was difficult – and the ones I did issue,
simply didn’t perform well enough.
I
suspect that was often caused by me not being able to tips the horses I actually
wanted to tip – but that’s not really an acceptable excuse.
I
tried for a month, at the end of the season, to see if I might be able to tip
late in the day, via the ‘Fair bets’.
However, I don’t really feel that was sufficiently
successful to warrant continuing with, next season.
To
operate successfully in the mid week races, I suspect you need to either bet
very early – or very late – and neither of those lend themselves to
tipping…
So
where does that leave things for next season…?
I
see no need to change anything, with regard to the Big race tips.
Not
only were they profitable over the course of the season – but the other
profitable aspects of the service (pre-season, post season, ante-post and Top
Picks), all focused on Big races.
The
issue is therefore what to do on a Daily basis…
I
have a number of options in this area – and I intend to create a post on the
forum, to canvass opinions…
The
Daily tips will stop – but what about the write-up on mid week days ?
Does this have sufficient value to warrant
producing, if there won’t be any tips..?
Another option would be for me to offer brief early
opinions, in the forum – and maybe revisit at lunchtime, on race
days.
Or
alternatively, I could just skip the mid week completely, and focus solely on
the weekends/festivals…
I
have a relatively open mind on the best path forward, so really need a few of
you guys to let me know your preference.
Anyway, I think that just about covers all of the main
points.
It’s
been a season which I have mixed views on – as I suspect do many of
you.
That
said, the main issue seems pretty clear, and that will be addressed.
One
thing I really must thank you all for, is your support – either explicitly, or
implicitly - throughout the season.
There is no denying that there were some tough days –
particularly during December – but it says much for the quality of my subscriber
base, that there was barely a dissenting voice (and plenty of supporting ones
!).
I
consider myself lucky to have built up such a group of loyal and knowledgeable
subscribers. I suspect there are few – if any – services with a stronger
following (and I’m honestly not just saying that !).
As
I’ve mentioned previously, I will continue to post thoughts on the forum, on an
ad-hoc basis (when suitable races appear – and as time permits).
Likewise, I know that Chris and Francis are committed to
running a few systems through the summer – and also recording the results of
their experiment with Nina/Alice !
In
short, if you are bored, then tune in to the forum !
Otherwise, I’ll be back in touch in the autumn, with
details of my plans for the 2017-18 season (hopefully inspired by some of your
input !).
Best
wishes for an enjoyable summer – and thanks again for the ongoing
support.
TVB.
